Fresh off of a 9-6 week that could have been much worse. My record thus far this year has improved to 39-23-1 heading into Week 5. There are some huge games this week such as Tampa Bay vs Chicago, Buffalo vs Tennessee, Steelers vs Eagles, Colts vs Browns, Raiders vs Chiefs, and Chargers vs Saints. Loaded week of action. Let’s get down to it here are my picks for this week.
Buccaneers (3-1) at Bears (3-1), 8:20 p.m. (Fox/NFLN)
Tom Brady is coming off a 5 touchdown game where everyone is already saying he’s back to the Tom of old. Let’s slow down a bit. His top two WR’s Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are battling injuries and TE OJ Howard was lost for the season with an Achilles injury last week in the game against the Chargers. Then there are the Bears who I think benched Mitch too early in the season. Nick Foles was less than impressive (26/42 249 yards 1 TD 1 Int 42 QBR) in the game last week against the Colts. I like the Bears roster but I just don’t trust Nick Foles. Unless he’s wearing an Eagles uniform I haven’t seen him (outside of last week) play close to that level he did as what he did in Philadelphia. I think Godwin comes back this week and tops 100 yards receiving in what I think is a low scoring game. Ronald Jones punches one in at the end of the 4th to put the game away.
Josh’s Pick: Buccaneers 24-20
Panthers (2-2) at Falcons (0-4), 1 p.m. (Fox)
This is one of those they have to win a game, eventually right kind of games. Carolina has looked very good the last two weeks but you know how division games go. I trust Atlanta’s offense more as they have the ability to put up points in bunches and like I said they have to win one eventually. I don’t trust them to keep a lead but my head says this is the week they get a win so let’s see how that goes. Big Todd Gurley game this week with 2 touchdowns as Atlanta finally doesn’t blow a lead.
Josh’s Pick: Atlanta 31-26
Bengals (1-2-1) at Ravens (3-1), 1 p.m. (CBS)
As much as I’d love to pick the Bengals in this one I can’t. That offensive line is going to get eaten alive by this deep front seven of Baltimore and the terrible Bengals defense I feel is going to get destroyed by Lamar. This screams blowout but I think this game will be closer than most people think up until the end. Lamar runs one in late in the 4th as the Bengals put up a surprisingly good fight just come up short to the much better Ravens. I see 400 total yards and 4 touchdowns for Lamar as the Ravens improve to 4-1.
Josh’s Pick: Ravens 35-30
Jaguars (1-3) at Texans (0-4), 1 p.m. (CBS)
Well, you all know by now how I feel about Jacksonville. Tank for Trevor still in full effect but in comes the hopeless Texans. This is just like the Panthers vs Falcons game I picked above. It’s a division game and Houston has to win here or I don’t honestly know when they will win a game. Deshaun Watson is the X factor here as he is playing his ass off even though he barely has anything to work with. Will Fuller tops 100 yards for a second straight week and the Texans defense will make Gardner Minshew turn the ball over a couple of times. Texans finally get a win and Bill O Brien can go one week without hearing about his job security.
Josh’s Pick: Texans 28-17
Raiders (2-2) at Chiefs (4-0), 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Chiefs are a well-oiled machine. What do you want me to say? The Raiders defense has been getting eaten alive and I expect Mahomes and company to have a field day. This is a division game and there is always that chance this game is an upset but I just don’t see it. I’m sorry I don’t really have much to say about it. Chiefs roll.
Josh’s Picks: Chiefs 34-21
Broncos (1-3) at Patriots (2-2), 1 p.m. (CBS)
This is a game the Patriots defense should dominate. Whether it’s Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, or Blake Bortles the Patriots should win this one running away. The only thing a little concerning is the two-headed monster of RB’s Melvin Gordan/Phillip Lindsey (who might be back for the game). But other than that with no WR Courtland Sutton and missing tons of players on defense that Patriots will roll whether Cam Newton is back or not. N’ Keal Harry gets the first 100-yard receiving game of his young career as the Patriots put together there best played a complete game of the season.
Josh’s Pick: Patriots 30-16
Cardinals (2-2) at Jets (0-4), 1 p.m. (Fox)
I picked the Jets last week knowing I shouldn’t have and they lost to a guy playing quarterback that I’ve never even heard of until I turned the game on. The Jets are a joke and not worth anyone’s time. Cardinals bounce back from 2 straight losses and lay it on the Jets. Big games from Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins and Kenyan Drake finally tops 100 yards on the ground and make his fantasy owners happy.
Josh’s Pick: Cardinals 38-13
Eagles (1-2-1) at Steelers (3-0), 1 p.m. (Fox)
The battle of first-place teams YES!!! Well not really. The Philadelphia Eagles are somehow in first place. The NFC Least is a complete disaster right now. I don’t think this game is close. You got the Steelers coming off of an unexpected bye week (COVID) with a loaded defense going up against a banged-up Eagles offensive line who are just lucky to get enough people healthy to suit up. The Eagles wouldn’t have won the game Sunday night if Nick Mullens didn’t forget what team he played for and stopped turning the ball over. Pittsburgh defense dominates this game as the Eagles do what I expect them to do a lot of this year. LOSE. Big Ben doesn’t have to do too much as the defense forces 3 turnovers including a pick 6.
Josh’s Pick: Steelers 27-13
Bills (4-0) at Titans (3-0), 1 p.m. (CBS)
I’m a die-hard Patriots fan and I want you guys to know how much I despise the Buffalo Bills. But, if you take that out of the equation I can honestly say I DON’T BELIEVE IN THEM STILL. The last 3 times the Bills started 3-0 (yes I know they are 4-0 but that’s not the point) was in 2008 (where everyone said they were great but finished 7-9), then in 2011 where they ended up finishing 6-10, and last year where they did finish 10-6 but lost to the Houston Texans in probably the worst playoff game I’ve ever watched. I don’t believe much in Tennessee either as I don’t trust Ryan Tannehill at all. This game should be good and low scoring but I’ll pick Buffalo hoping me actually picking them makes them lose a game. LET’S GO DERRICK HENRY!! With that being said I’m going Bills 🙂
Josh’s Pick: Bills 20-14
Rams (3-1) at Washington (1-3), 1 p.m. (Fox)
The LA Rams offense was not very good last week against the terrible New York Giants (only 240 yards of total offense). I expect them to bounce back in a big way against a Washington team that QB Dwyane Haskins is looking over his shoulder due to the fact he could be benched at any time. Jared Goff bounces back to throw over 350 yards and a couple of touchdowns and both WR’s Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods top 100 yards receiving each. Rams improve to 4-1 and stay within striking distance of Seattle.
Josh’s Pick: Rams 37-16
Dolphins (1-3) at 49ers (2-2), 4:05 p.m. (Fox)
This is what I call the boring game of the day. With Jimmy G’s status unknown at this point and Nick Mullens being benched for CJ Beathard (who played very well) going up against Ryan Shitzpatrick this game is one I probably won’t even turn on unless I’m playing against one of these teams players in fantasy. With upcoming games on the schedule against the Rams(twice), Patriots, Packers, Saints, and Seattle (twice) coming up on the schedule the 49ers have to win this game and I think they will. Shitzpatrick wasn’t very good last week (2 INT) and I don’t think he will be this week either. It should be about Tua time in Miami (I still don’t understand why he’s not playing now). The 49ers win a boring game that only the 49ers, Dolphins, and fantasy football owners of players on each team care about.
Josh’s Pick: 49ers 20-10
Colts (3-1) at Browns (3-1), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
This to me is the most interesting game of the day. Two teams playing pretty well but defense is key here. The Colts have one of the best defenses in the NFL and are very good against the run. Well, that’s bad news for the Browns because the Browns love to run and are missing lead rusher Nick Chubb who is now out possibly 6 weeks with injury. That means the Colts are going to gameplan to stop Kareem Hunt and make Baker beat them with his arm which we know doesn’t go well unless he is able to use play action and have the threat of the run. I think the Colts take that away and win this game. The Browns defense has been AWFUL! Dak did just put up 500 yards on them and they did just about blow a huge 31-14 lead to the Cowboys last week. The Colts are the better team and prove it here. Rivers throws for close to 400 yards and the Colts win fairly easy on the road.
Josh’s Pick: Colts 33-20
Giants (0-4) at Cowboys (1-3), 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
This is a game the Cowboys should not be able to fall behind early in. The Giants have one of the worst offenses in the league and it’s even an offense the terrible Cowboys defense should be able to contain. I think this is a game where the Cowboys defense HAS to step it up and play better. Due to that and the fact that the Cowboys offense looks damn near unstoppable and Dak is playing out of his mind, I think Cowboys fans (my dad) can rest easy watching this game as I think Dallas takes the lead early in this game and never looks back. I expect a bounce-back game from Zeke as he has been shut down the last two weeks. The Cowboys win and take back over first place in the NFC Least.
Josh’s Pick: Cowboys 28-10
Vikings (1-3) at Seahawks (4-0), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
I’d say this could be an upset game but Minnesota has shown me no reason to believe that will happen. I do expect this game to be high scoring as both teams give up near 30 points a game but I trust Russell Wilson more than any QB in the game right now and I expect him to light up this Vikings defense and put up over 350 yards through the air. This game will be fun to watch but in the end, the Vikings don’t have enough firepower to keep up. The Seahawks move to 5-0 and show why they are the favorite in the NFC
Josh’s Pick: Seahawks 41-30
Chargers (1-3) at Saints (2-2), 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Good news Saints fans, Michael Thomas should be back. More good news even if he isn’t the Chargers defense is banged up and should be easy for Drew Brees to pick apart. Even though Justin Herbert is playing out of his mind I have to think the Saints finally put together a complete game here. Let’s call this the Drew Brees game. Remember once upon a time Drew Brees was a member of the then-San Diego Chargers. Even though I’m sure there’s no ill will but in the back of his mind he wants to stick it to them for giving up on him years ago. The Chargers just don’t have enough healthy bodies for me to be confident to pick them. Alvin Kamara keeps up his hot streak by totaling over 150 total yards of offense and 2 touchdowns as the Saints handle the Chargers.
Josh’s Pick: Saints 34-20